Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - Département de mécanique Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Piers Forster
Chris Smith
Tristram Walsh
William Lamb
Robin Lamboll
  • Fonction : Auteur
Bradley Hall
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mathias Hauser
Aurélien Ribes
Debbie Rosen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nathan Gillett
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew Palmer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Joeri Rogelj
Karina von Schuckmann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Blair Trewin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Myles Allen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Robbie Andrew
Richard Betts
Alex Borger
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tim Boyer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jiddu Broersma
  • Fonction : Auteur
Carlo Buontempo
Samantha Burgess
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chiara Cagnazzo
Lijing Cheng
Andrew Gettelman
Johannes Gütschow
Masayoshi Ishii
  • Fonction : Auteur
Stuart Jenkins
Xin Lan
Colin Morice
Jens Mühle
Christopher Kadow
John Kennedy
Rachel Killick
Paul Krummel
Jan Minx
Gunnar Myhre
Vaishali Naik
  • Fonction : Auteur
Glen Peters
Anna Pirani
Julia Pongratz
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Sonia Seneviratne
Peter Thorne
Mahesh Kovilakam
Elisa Majamäki
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen
Margreet van Marle
Rachel Hoesly
  • Fonction : Auteur
Robert Rohde
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dominik Schumacher
Guido van der Werf
Russell Vose
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kirsten Zickfeld
Xuebin Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Panmao Zhai
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
essd-16-2625-2024.pdf (6.06 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-04621401 , version 1 (24-06-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Piers Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William Lamb, Robin Lamboll, et al.. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data, 2024, 16 (6), pp.2625-2658. ⟨10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024⟩. ⟨hal-04621401⟩
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More